Comments on: The Misanthrope’s Guide to the End of the World http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/ experiments in refactored perception Wed, 08 Feb 2012 03:00:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: cherrysthorne http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-13223 cherrysthorne Sat, 26 Nov 2011 00:07:00 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-13223 Great piece ... sadly enough probably the most interesting read I've had in a long time Great piece … sadly enough probably the most interesting read I’ve had in a long time

]]> By: Edwin Kite http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-10121 Edwin Kite Thu, 14 Apr 2011 01:47:06 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-10121 Surprised not to see any discussion of Nick Bostrom's writing here. He even looks misanthropic, given the right lighting. Surprised not to see any discussion of Nick Bostrom’s writing here.
He even looks misanthropic, given the right lighting.

]]> By: gwern http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-9627 gwern Mon, 21 Feb 2011 05:41:40 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-9627 > I am shocked that nobody has really studied garbage eschatology, besides the writers of Wall-E. Garbage eschatology (I claim credit for this neologism) is based on the premise that our technological infrastructure has acquired too much complexity for us to fix. It will kill us not by turning sentient and (for whatever obscure reason) wanting to kill us, but by stupidly and dumbly collapsing on top of us, like a gigantic Windows Vista, while we watch, powerless to prevent our impending accidental death. Technology will kill us by collapsing into a pile of rubble, turning the planet into a gigantic landfill. Curiously, this is the topic of one of the oldest and still fairly well known SF stories - E.M. Forster's "The Machine Stops" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops). > I am shocked that nobody has really studied garbage eschatology, besides the writers of Wall-E. Garbage eschatology (I claim credit for this neologism) is based on the premise that our technological infrastructure has acquired too much complexity for us to fix. It will kill us not by turning sentient and (for whatever obscure reason) wanting to kill us, but by stupidly and dumbly collapsing on top of us, like a gigantic Windows Vista, while we watch, powerless to prevent our impending accidental death. Technology will kill us by collapsing into a pile of rubble, turning the planet into a gigantic landfill.

Curiously, this is the topic of one of the oldest and still fairly well known SF stories – E.M. Forster’s “The Machine Stops” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops).

]]> By: Venkat http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-9623 Venkat Sun, 20 Feb 2011 18:28:30 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-9623 "Rapture of the nerds" was not my line. It was the headline of an IEEE article. The Singularity idea is obviously more complex and multifaceted than I could convey in this broad piece which has an emphasis elsewhere. “Rapture of the nerds” was not my line. It was the headline of an IEEE article.

The Singularity idea is obviously more complex and multifaceted than I could convey in this broad piece which has an emphasis elsewhere.

]]> By: Joshua Zelinsky http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-9622 Joshua Zelinsky Sun, 20 Feb 2011 17:51:08 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-9622 Your summary of the Singularity claims seems inaccurate and unfair.There are a variety of distinct claims made by different classes of Singularity proponents. The emphasis on making AI that is friendly is due more to the Yudkowsky end of the Singularity movement, many of whom have a very negative view of Kurzweil. Kurzweil's version of the Singularity involves the power of exponential growth across a large variety of technological frontiers. Note also that the "rapture of the nerds" is a very inaccurate statement. There's no equivalent of the small set of saved individuals. Everyone ends up as part of the Singularitarian utopia. Finally, note that pattern matching is not in general a good approach. That certain eschatologies have superficial similarities is not a strong reason to assign them the same confidence. Your summary of the Singularity claims seems inaccurate and unfair.There are a variety of distinct claims made by different classes of Singularity proponents. The emphasis on making AI that is friendly is due more to the Yudkowsky end of the Singularity movement, many of whom have a very negative view of Kurzweil. Kurzweil’s version of the Singularity involves the power of exponential growth across a large variety of technological frontiers.

Note also that the “rapture of the nerds” is a very inaccurate statement. There’s no equivalent of the small set of saved individuals. Everyone ends up as part of the Singularitarian utopia.

Finally, note that pattern matching is not in general a good approach. That certain eschatologies have superficial similarities is not a strong reason to assign them the same confidence.

]]> By: Tim Converse http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-9260 Tim Converse Mon, 03 Jan 2011 15:49:43 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-9260 I haven't read Lanier's "You Are Not a Gadget" yet, either, but I saw a quote from him (don't recall source) where he opposed the technological Singularity to a more likely outcome: becoming "a nation of help-desks". I haven’t read Lanier’s “You Are Not a Gadget” yet, either, but I saw a quote from him (don’t recall source) where he opposed the technological Singularity to a more likely outcome: becoming “a nation of help-desks”.

]]> By: Venkat http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-9220 Venkat Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:43:34 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-9220 Damn, forgot about that. Yes, the link structure has changed. Will update the post links. Damn, forgot about that. Yes, the link structure has changed. Will update the post links.

]]> By: David Schoonover http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-9219 David Schoonover Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:29:05 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-9219 I suspect perhaps the semantics of trailmeme links has changed since you've posted this, as all the /follow links left me wondering if maybe my browser wasn't supported. Compare: http://trailmeme.com/follow/The_End_of_the_World/1014281944 vs. http://trailmeme.com/walk/The_End_of_the_World/1014281944 I had to fiddle to find the /walk links (as they only come from double-clicking on the map, which isn't exactly intuitive). ps. It's pretty sweet that the trailmeme maps are now HTML5/canvas for those that support it. I never saw them before as I block Flash. I suspect perhaps the semantics of trailmeme links has changed since you’ve posted this, as all the /follow links left me wondering if maybe my browser wasn’t supported.

Compare:

http://trailmeme.com/follow/The_End_of_the_World/1014281944

vs.

http://trailmeme.com/walk/The_End_of_the_World/1014281944

I had to fiddle to find the /walk links (as they only come from double-clicking on the map, which isn’t exactly intuitive).

ps. It’s pretty sweet that the trailmeme maps are now HTML5/canvas for those that support it. I never saw them before as I block Flash.

]]> By: What are the strongest arguments that the singularity is either not going to happen, or will happen much further off than the futurists think? - Quora http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-9215 What are the strongest arguments that the singularity is either not going to happen, or will happen much further off than the futurists think? - Quora Tue, 28 Dec 2010 00:42:40 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-9215 [...] possible critique, which I call "garbage eschatology" (short version, the movie Idiocracy.http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/0...Basic idea being our complex systems that run the world will gather obsolescence faster than they [...] [...] possible critique, which I call "garbage eschatology" (short version, the movie Idiocracy.http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/0…Basic idea being our complex systems that run the world will gather obsolescence faster than they [...]

]]> By: Kay http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4961 Kay Sun, 20 Jun 2010 14:55:50 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4961 Another variant of the "end of time" has been explored by J.G.Ballard who made references to Dalís surrealist image of the soft clocks. Time becomes fibred and incoherent and so the mind which drifts apart into psychedelia or catatonia which is then called "the trance". This corresponds with the typical Ballardian landscapes: the wasteland suburbia, the Manhatten ghost-town ( reminiscent to those in "Life after people" rather than post-nuclear deserts ) and the broken sunglasses at the bottom of swimming pools. Luckily Ballard is usually brief in explanations. Maybe Jean Baudrillard was a Ballardian philosopher who owed more to surrealism than to sociology, actually. Another variant of the “end of time” has been explored by J.G.Ballard who made references to Dalís surrealist image of the soft clocks. Time becomes fibred and incoherent and so the mind which drifts apart into psychedelia or catatonia which is then called “the trance”. This corresponds with the typical Ballardian landscapes: the wasteland suburbia, the Manhatten ghost-town ( reminiscent to those in “Life after people” rather than post-nuclear deserts ) and the broken sunglasses at the bottom of swimming pools. Luckily Ballard is usually brief in explanations.

Maybe Jean Baudrillard was a Ballardian philosopher who owed more to surrealism than to sociology, actually.

]]> By: Catherine Raymond http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4365 Catherine Raymond Sun, 07 Mar 2010 19:09:41 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4365 Very interesting piece. However, I have a hard time figuring out how I would answer your questions, largely because most of the world views you discuss confuse "end of the world" and "end of the universe" (or "end of everything") with "end of the dominant civilization" We've had the "end of the dominant civilization" occur a number of times in the history of this planet and there has always been a jerry-built structure to handle the daily wants of life until a new dominant civilization arises. So from where I sit, an "end of the dominant civilization" is not an "end of the world". An "end of the world," to me, is something that would kill most of the life, including most of the intelligent life, on the planet. This is the category where AGW and Malthusian scenarios go. We haven't had one of those yet, and hopefully never will. If we were going that route, I would definitely fight, because I want to live. No other reason is necessary. As for "the end of everything?" There are some cosmological theories that hypothesize that that will happen, billions of years in the future. I'm not sure whether I believe them or not. Very interesting piece. However, I have a hard time figuring out how I would answer your questions, largely because most of the world views you discuss confuse “end of the world” and “end of the universe” (or “end of everything”) with “end of the dominant civilization” We’ve had the “end of the dominant civilization” occur a number of times in the history of this planet and there has always been a jerry-built structure to handle the daily wants of life until a new dominant civilization arises.

So from where I sit, an “end of the dominant civilization” is not an “end of the world”. An “end of the world,” to me, is something that would kill most of the life, including most of the intelligent life, on the planet. This is the category where AGW and Malthusian scenarios go. We haven’t had one of those yet, and hopefully never will. If we were going that route, I would definitely fight, because I want to live. No other reason is necessary.

As for “the end of everything?” There are some cosmological theories that hypothesize that that will happen, billions of years in the future. I’m not sure whether I believe them or not.

]]> By: Venkat http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4342 Venkat Tue, 02 Mar 2010 22:36:02 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4342 Yeah, we are one black swan away from extinction, and several white swans also loom. I am told Delhi will run out of groundwater in 2012. The CIA, I read somewhere, has lately been doing a lot more scenario planning around food and water wars than Iraq or Afghanistan. That says something. Yeah, we are one black swan away from extinction, and several white swans also loom. I am told Delhi will run out of groundwater in 2012.

The CIA, I read somewhere, has lately been doing a lot more scenario planning around food and water wars than Iraq or Afghanistan. That says something.

]]> By: JLD http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4327 JLD Sun, 28 Feb 2010 18:55:10 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4327 @tubelite Why should one be worried more about the "death" of civilization or the death of your children or grandchildren (I have two) than about one's own death? Is it even reasonable to worry that much about one's own death? Isn't this expectable and guaranteed? If you are into doomerism do you know these "professionals" in the trade: <a href="http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">Kurt Cobb</a>. <a href="http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">John Michael Greer</a>. @tubelite

Why should one be worried more about the “death” of civilization or the death of your children or grandchildren (I have two) than about one’s own death?
Is it even reasonable to worry that much about one’s own death?
Isn’t this expectable and guaranteed?
If you are into doomerism do you know these “professionals” in the trade:
Kurt Cobb.
John Michael Greer.

]]> By: tubelite http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4326 tubelite Sun, 28 Feb 2010 16:30:15 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4326 Power, water, garbage, fuel. Do you know where they come from and where they go? I sure don't, and I doubt any city dweller really knows. I'd bet on the garbage eschaton too. Even a medium-sized <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127001.300-space-storm-alert-90-seconds-from-catastrophe.html?full=true" rel="nofollow">cough</a> from the sun is enough, apparently, to fry our transmission lines. I lost the smugness which I used to face EotW scenarios when I gained parenthood. Parenthood is one of those things which need to be experienced to truly appreciate the world-view-changing it brings about. Jared Diamond's Collapse is depressing and a must read. I'm still amused at the global warming dudes, though. A complete lack of historical (geological time scale) perspective leads to people worrying about cows farting, as if we haven't seen much worse fluctuations already. Eating into our natural resource capital, food shocks and the collapse of the precarious human social pyramid will kill us dead much before we warm up enough to make good on our futuristic beachfront property purchases. Power, water, garbage, fuel. Do you know where they come from and where they go? I sure don’t, and I doubt any city dweller really knows. I’d bet on the garbage eschaton too. Even a medium-sized cough from the sun is enough, apparently, to fry our transmission lines.

I lost the smugness which I used to face EotW scenarios when I gained parenthood. Parenthood is one of those things which need to be experienced to truly appreciate the world-view-changing it brings about.

Jared Diamond’s Collapse is depressing and a must read.

I’m still amused at the global warming dudes, though. A complete lack of historical (geological time scale) perspective leads to people worrying about cows farting, as if we haven’t seen much worse fluctuations already. Eating into our natural resource capital, food shocks and the collapse of the precarious human social pyramid will kill us dead much before we warm up enough to make good on our futuristic beachfront property purchases.

]]> By: unbjames http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4119 unbjames Sat, 06 Feb 2010 07:38:20 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4119 Most "end of the world" scenarios (in time) would be large-scale disruptions to civilization (from Global Warming to Supervolcanic Eruptions), but wouldn't end the world per se. My vote goes to a Gamma Ray Burst coming from within 1000 light years of the Earth ... or a 5+ mile wide comet/asteroid hitting the Earth ... those things would wipe out everything but bacteria! Most “end of the world” scenarios (in time) would be large-scale disruptions to civilization (from Global Warming to Supervolcanic Eruptions), but wouldn’t end the world per se.

My vote goes to a Gamma Ray Burst coming from within 1000 light years of the Earth … or a 5+ mile wide comet/asteroid hitting the Earth … those things would wipe out everything but bacteria!

]]> By: Dale http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4088 Dale Tue, 02 Feb 2010 19:18:26 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4088 I would fight. Not out of guilt, or bloodymindedness, but out of a will to preserve the first thing that I would seek to save, my own life. Without that, I couldn't save anything or anyone else. I would fight. Not out of guilt, or bloodymindedness, but out of a will to preserve the first thing that I would seek to save, my own life. Without that, I couldn’t save anything or anyone else.

]]> By: Heavyset » The End of Days, Anti-Anti-Socialism, Polarizing Filters and Splitting Heirs http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4087 Heavyset » The End of Days, Anti-Anti-Socialism, Polarizing Filters and Splitting Heirs Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:45:13 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4087 [...] begin with the end of days, though I am completely enamored of the writing of Venkatesh Rao, whose treatise on the manner in which apocalyptic worldview reveals the measure of a man’s psyche is [...] [...] begin with the end of days, though I am completely enamored of the writing of Venkatesh Rao, whose treatise on the manner in which apocalyptic worldview reveals the measure of a man’s psyche is [...]

]]> By: JLD http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4086 JLD Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:08:44 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4086 @ricky_elias The definitive answer about complexity has been brought forth long ago: <i>For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H. L. Mencken</i> @ricky_elias

The definitive answer about complexity has been brought forth long ago:
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
H. L. Mencken

]]> By: ricky_elias http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4085 ricky_elias Tue, 02 Feb 2010 14:23:34 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4085 Another aspect to consider with this discussion on complexity, is political debates on complex topics, e.g. climate change where democratic 'leaders' representing a majority make decisions based on popular opinion. The point being, the complexity of the issue makes popular opinion almost worthless - leading to misguided, potentially dangerous outcomes. Another aspect to consider with this discussion on complexity, is political debates on complex topics, e.g. climate change where democratic ‘leaders’ representing a majority make decisions based on popular opinion. The point being, the complexity of the issue makes popular opinion almost worthless – leading to misguided, potentially dangerous outcomes.

]]> By: Kaiv http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/28/the-misanthropes-guide-to-the-end-of-the-world/#comment-4082 Kaiv Tue, 02 Feb 2010 09:18:35 +0000 http://www.ribbonfarm.com/?p=1435#comment-4082 i think you haven't really included the "darwins radio" as a possibility for end of the world :) i think you haven’t really included the “darwins radio” as a possibility for end of the world :)

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